Analyst Intel Archives

Now that we are a few weeks into sales for 2020, we have a pretty clear picture of how they are playing out. 

It would be fair to say it has been a shaky start, with drops in schedules over the break continuing to hamper any upwards movement in the prime markets. The store markets are always at the mercy of the weather gods at this time of year and when one looks at a soil moisture deficit map and it shows nearly 80% of the country being somewhere between orange and red (dry or very dry), then it is hardly surprising to see that demand for stock has also dried up.

As a rugby-loving nation any opportunity to use the age-old analogy about a game of two halves is always jumped on and it is perfect when reflecting on the results of the first ewe fairs of 2020. It does mean, though, the fairs have not always posted results that meet the high expectations many have for them, myself included. High levels were reached but perhaps not as consistently as many had hoped.

While some yards ease into the new year in relative quiet there is no cruisey start for Te Kuiti with the year kicking off with cattle fairs every day of the week. The yard can lay claim to be the first cattle fair to kick off each year, with that week targeted as cattle are at their peak.

Older steers and bulls began the week, followed by three days of yearling steers and finishing with yearling heifers and bulls on Friday. Tallies accumulated to just shy of 5000 head and the 30 staff and stock agents working at the yards could have been forgiven for thinking it was Ground Hog Day. But each day ran like a well-oiled machine with close to and sometimes more than 1000 cattle yarded relatively seamlessly for a lunchtime start.

This year can only be described as a roller coaster – it has had amazing highs in most sectors of the farming industry at some point but, equally as concerning, lows, all of which make up 12 months that will be talked about for years to come.

Sometimes it pays to think outside the square and break from tradition because one might just be pleasantly surprised with the results. That rang true at Frankton a few weeks ago when the need for a bull-only sale became apparent and the idea was bandied around.

Head over to 6:30 to hear AgriHQ senior analyst Mel Croad talk more on forestry exports around the country. 

Head to 5:30 to hear AgriHQ senior analyst Mel Croad talk more on the lamb export markets. 

Yards are flat out and it feels like there will be no let-up this side of Christmas as high prices and a rapidly approaching summer keep the flow of stock coming. The hammer has fallen many times in rostrums with price differences for stock sold in the North Island to the South. North Island cattle usually make a premium while sheep are trading at similar levels, if not better, this year in the South.

Lamb weaning is well under way and it is that time of year when cull ewes hit their straps in the markets with a boost in supply and prices. Saying last year’s market was good is a bit of an understatement but again we have seen it push to new levels in 2019. The few fingers of responsibility for that can be firmly pointed at strong schedule prices, high demand and low supply of lambs.

Bull beef farmers are a very happy bunch or at least they should be. Overseas demand for their product has soared this year.  Overseas demand for their product has soared this year. In the space of 12 months imported 95CL bull meat has lifted from a low of US$1.88/lb to now be well over US$3/lb. Factor in the lower exchange rate and export returns for 95CL bull are pitched over NZ$10/kg. It’s no wonder farmgate bull prices have propelled well over $6/kg and in some instances are now priced higher than prime beef. It’s a simple equation of demand outstripping supply. And it begins with two importing powerhouses slugging it out to secure the volumes they so desperately need.