Analyst Intel Archives

AgriHQ analysts Nicola Dennis and Sarah Friel discuss last week's North Island and South Island Livestock Insight reports, highlighting the enduring impacts of African Swine Fever on China's demand for beef, and how dry conditions are underpinning the store and slaughter markets.

The timing of the Maniototo Last Muster Lamb Sale is not set by chance. Most of the locals are keen duck shooters and enjoy a relaxed weekend in their favourite mimis. So, in true Kiwi style, the sale date is dictated by opening weekend, as it is always held on the Tuesday before the big event.

Store lamb prices have consistently lifted in recent weeks. After bottoming out under $3/kg earlier on, North Island paddock prices have staged a slight recovery, averaging close to $3.30/kg for 35kg-plus male lambs through April. Good feed conditions and encouraging winter contract prices have underpinned the market.

One of the highlights of the weaner fair season is the Sue Brother’s sale, held at the Feilding sale yards. The Sue family religiously sell their annual draft Angus-Hereford calves at these yards and even last year’s lockdown did not affect that; the fair was simply delayed by a month until it was able to be held. 

Each year around 800 calves are shipped down from Taihape and it is nothing short of a phenomenal sight to see such a volume of very consistent black and white calves yarded. They essentially come as one line and under PGG Wrightson’s guidance, are sex-drafted and then drafted into saleable line sizes. The calves' reputation precedes them and also a willingness from buyers to support a well-respected family means that this fair is always well-supported.

By Sarah Friel 

Some rainfall since the end of February has taken the edge off dry summer conditions, but this recovery was mainly restricted to the western side of the country. In the North Island, Taranaki and Manawatū are well-placed, with grass after having a few wet days throughout April, but the eastern side of the island, from Gisborne south, is still languishing in what some have called a green drought. 

From February to now, Gisborne and Central Hawke’s Bay have had very similar rainfall compared to last year’s drought. Dannevirke and Masterton are worse off, observing a 47mm and 108mm deficit respectively. Further north, Bay of Plenty is also feeling a pinch, recording a 74mm year-on-year deficit in Rotorua.

US markets open for business

AgriHQ analysts Nicola Dennis and Sarah Friel run through last week's North Island and South Island Livestock Insight Reports, talking about the strength of the US imported beef market, supplies of cattle and lambs to processors, and the buzzkill that is shipping logistics. 

The US imported beef market has made strong gains since levelling off in February. Weekly price rises have pushed the market to levels only seen a handful of times in the past 10 years.

Hidden in a valley in the hills of Northern Southland halfbred and Texel-cross lambs were mustered in by helicopter and horseback on Nokomai Station, in preparation for the fifth annual autumn lamb muster held last Monday.

AgriHQ analysts Nicola Dennis and Sarah Friel discuss last week's North Island and South Island Livestock Insight reports, discussing weather concerns throughout the country, processor prices and capacity, and how the store market is handling dry conditions. 

A strengthening Chinese economy and ongoing pork supply issues from African swine fever outbreaks have changed Chinese buying patterns over the past months. One notable change is a strong interest in frozen lamb carcases, purchased for further processing.